FX Daily: Rare earth exports now the lightning rod for trade

Rare Earth Exports and Trade Tensions

China's rare earth export controls have become a key factor in determining risk appetite in financial markets over the next four weeks.

The decision to impose export controls on rare earths has sparked concern in the US and among G7 nations, with the ability to negotiate these controls away being a major topic of discussion.

The ability or failure to get those controls negotiated away will be one of the hottest topics for financial markets over the next four weeks.

The dollar has softened slightly, with short-dated US rates at their lowest point for the year, following the release of the Fed's Beige Book, which suggests a rate cut at the end of the month.

Betting markets expect the US government shutdown to continue into November, with US-China relations being a major focus ahead of key dates.

Author's summary: Rare earth exports spark trade tensions.

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ING Think ING Think — 2025-10-16