Canadian History of Floor-Crossing
Floor-crossing, when politicians change party affiliation, has a long history in Canada dating back to Confederation. However, public reaction has often been mixed, with terms ranging from “traitor” to “brave” used to describe MPs who take this step.
Electoral Consequences of Switching Parties
Despite the variety of opinions, one consistent outcome is that politicians who switch parties rarely remain easily re-electable. The recent announcement that longtime Conservative Chris d'Entremont is joining the federal Liberal caucus surprised many, with Prime Minister Mark Carney suggesting others might follow.
Assistant Professor Semra Sevi from the University of Toronto’s political science department researched every MP who crossed the floor from Confederation until 2015. Her findings revealed a sharp electoral decline for floor-crossers over time.
Historical Patterns
In the early years, up until the mid-20th century, MPs who switched parties maintained nearly the same level of voter support in their subsequent elections as before. But since the 1970s, the situation has changed dramatically.
Modern Trends and Risks
“Switching parties is an extremely risky move that almost always hurts a politician's chances of re-election,” said Semra Sevi.
As political parties have become more institutionalized, the cost of switching has increased, making it harder for politicians to survive electorally outside their original party. Still, there have been rare examples of successful floor-crossing.
Summary
Floor-crossing in Canadian politics is an age-old phenomenon that now carries significant electoral risks as party loyalty has grown stronger over time.
“There are rare instances of success.” — Semra Sevi
Author's summary: While floor-crossing has always sparked debate, its increasing electoral risks reflect the growing importance of party loyalty in Canadian politics.